My US-based colleague Kevin Kerr wrote a very interesting article for my Outstanding Investments newsletter a couple of months ago – and the more I think about it, the more I believe that he is right.

He argued that the battle for global resources had already begun and were being drawn and the players are suiting up. He painted a future where the rapid consumption of commodities and the Earth’s soaring population would great a situation where resource wars were virtually inevitable.

Some scientists predict that the planet can sustain only 8 billion people; there simply are not enough natural resources to handle any more than that. Nobody knows for sure, but it’s a pretty good indicator that at 6 billion, we have worldwide clean water problems, pollution, strife, disease, etc.

At 8 billion, there will likely be even more problems – and the UN think the population will get to this level in the next 30 years.

The struggle for survival is human and animal nature. As resources become scarcer, the superior “animal” will seize the resources from the lesser species. It’s the law of natural selection, or survival of the fittest.

At a UN meeting Belgian Foreign Minister Karel de Gucht said his goal was to generate awareness that “good management of natural resources is important not just for development, but also for peace and security.”

Countries that are strategically positioned to survive are the ones with the most resources and a growing army to protect them - countries like Russia, China and Venezuela. Indeed, Russian moves to “bagsy” the Arctic are all part of this shift in global power.

A war over commodities is not an unreasonable prospect; after all, America is currently fighting a war in the Middle East over oil. It’s dragged us in too. It is not beyond the realms of possibility that it would launch more resource wars in the future.

Too many people with too many needs

I was reminded of this piece this morning when I read about a scuffle in Africa that could accelerate over the coming years. It made me sad because the fracas occurred in an area in which I used to live – and a place I love.

I spent almost a year living in and around fishing villages on the banks of Lake Albert, one of the great African Rift Valley lakes served by the Nile on its way to Egypt and the Mediterranean. It is a beautiful but remote part of the world, overlooked by the astonishing Rwenzori Mountains, better known as the Mountains of the Moon. It is an amazing and untouched place.

On Tuesday of last week, the peace was shattered, however. The relationship between the two counties surrounding the lake: Congo and Uganda have always been pretty strained. Indeed, Congo (sorry I can’t bear to use the words “Democratic Republic of”) is a wild and scary place where anything goes.

Tensions between the two countries were ratcheted higher after Uganda found oil in the lake last year. Production is expected to begin in 2009 and initial output to be between 6,000 and 10,000 barrels a day.

Uganda wants the oil… Congo wants the oil…

On Tuesday of last week, the Ugandan army exchanged fire with a Congolese boat on the lake and several people were killed and wounded in the clash. The dead included three men, two women and a child. A portent of the future? Perhaps.

In this case, it appears that the fault may have been on the Ugandan side in the confrontation, but my experience of the Congolese Army makes me think they weren’t entirely blameless. (I once met some of their representatives when a boat I was on strayed into their side of Lake Albert. They hadn’t had much customer-service training to say the least).

Earlier this month, the presidents of Uganda and Congo signed an agreement aimed at easing tensions over the lake that called on the two nations to work together to explore and exploit oil and to lay a joint pipeline. Whether they will be able to do this is anyone’s guess. Let’s hope so.

This incident is important however. It leaves me in no doubt that if the population continues to increase at the current rate, the world will become a much more dangerous place than it already is today. P.S. If you enjoyed this article then sign up for Smart Commodities UK. It’s dedicated to searching out the investment trends that could provide our biggest profit opportunities for the next decade…

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