Bill Bonner worries that America is repeating the economic errors of the thirties

Good news and bad news. But which is which? The situation is so confused, we can’t tell.

The good news is that housing prices are going down. That’s what the Wall Street Journal says. “Home prices declined in November.” Good. People will be able to find more affordable housing.

Wait. That’s not good news, is it? Doesn’t that mean we’re still in a depression? Besides, another report says housing is going up. What to believe?

Let’s try something else... Consumer confidence rose in the latest reporting period. No argument there...

Now, that’s definitely good news, right? Nope. The better things get, the more likely the feds are to clamp down on the recovery by ‘exiting’ their stimulus efforts and reducing the deficit.

That’s part of the reason stocks often decline when the news is ‘good’ and go up when it is ‘bad’. Investors are afraid the feds will take away the juice.

That would risk a return of the ‘error of ’37’... say economists such as Paul Krugman and Richard Koo. Ignoring the calendar a bit... it would turn our president into ‘Herbert Hoover’ Obama, as one commentator suggested.

What happened in the ’30s? Well, in the approved storyline, the feds had their stimulus foot to the floorboards... and they were happily driving right out of the depression.

But fearing inflation... deficits... and a backlash against excessive spending (and believing that they were clear of the bad neighborhood), they slowed down... they eased off their stimulus efforts in the mid-’30s. This sent the economy into another downturn and stretched the depression out for another three years.

It’s nonsense. What really caused the relapse of ’37 was the feds’ own meddling. But that’s not the way mainstream economists and analysts look at it.

In their cockamamie view, an economy grows thanks to the good stewardship of publicly elected officials. In their view, government spending is actually BETTER than private spending. Why? Because it produces nothing of value.

Really, we’re not making this up. And so what if the government doesn’t have any money? To them, money that doesn’t exist – created “out of thin air”, as Keynes put it – is BETTER than real money. Because it creates consumer price inflation. Up is down. Good is bad. Better is worse.

In their view, what makes a strong economy is government action – specifically, government spending. So, anything that might incline the feds to spend less is BAD news.

According to the papers there’s some bad news coming. ‘Cause Mr President is going to tell the nation in his State of the Union address that it’s time to put on the brakes.

If we don’t, people will get the impression that government spending is out of control. We can’t have that. Because lenders might refuse to lend. Investors might refuse to invest. Voters might refuse to vote for the scalawags now in office.

On the other hand, if the Prez really does cut spending, none of the aforementioned is likely to be very happy about it. Federal spending doesn’t really make people richer; it makes them poorer.

Still, appearances are what really matter. Dim economists want a president who puts into action their loopy theories. And dim voters want a president who takes action to save them from their own mistakes... especially when it means getting their hands on someone else’s money.

The stimulus offered by government spending is phony. But it appears real to the masses. Take it away and the economic consequences will appear very real too.

The ‘creative destruction’ of the market will finally get to express itself. Businesses that should fail will fail. Speculators who ought to lose money will lose money. There will be blood, in other words.

Like most people, we don’t mind a little blood... as long as it’s not our own. So you can imagine how the parasites will howl when they see the knife draw near to their own arteries!

They can relax. The feds are not likely to reduce spending significantly. The deficits are structural... they’re built into the system... they won’t go away.

And as the depression lingers, the debt piles up...

What will happen? We don’t know. We can’t look into the future. But we can look at Japan... a country that is at least ten years ahead of us.

Why is Japan ten years ahead? Because its stock market turned down in 1989... a decade ahead of Wall Street. And because its population is about ten years older. And because it’s been fighting the de-leveraging process for 20 years.

What can we learn? Here’s the latest from the WSJ, warning of an explosion:

“S&P lowers Japan’s outlook to negative.”

Uh oh. Not too encouraging. The rating agency told Japan that if it didn’t cut its deficits its debts would be downgraded.

Ah yes... thanks to the Japanese, we get to see someone cross the minefield ahead of us. After 20 years, Japan hasn’t been able to get clear. But it hasn’t blown up completely, either.

But watch closely. It’s putting its feet down on some dangerous ground. Deficits have grown and grown and grown. Now, it risks an explosion with every step. This year, it will borrow $480 billion. It will receive only $405 billion in tax revenue. As far as we know, no major economy has ever run so far into the red without a blow-up.

And what can it do? They are getting the same sort of advice as Obama. They’re told they must cut the deficit to protect the currency... the economy... and the credit rating. But they’re also told that good is bad, or bad is good... that if they do the right thing – cutting the deficit – the economy will suffer. Tax revenues will fall further... widening the deficit!

The Japanese economy has become so dependent on debt-fuelled government spending that if they take it away things fall apart. In the long run, that is exactly what should happen. The economy needs a shake-up... so it can rebuild on more solid foundations. But what politician wants to risk his own blood?

More news:

It looks as though big things are about to happen in the world of penny shares. Back in London, investment expert Tom Bulford has this exciting story to tell:

“Back in October 2009, I picked up the scent on an improbable story – of a potentially major oil deposit in the most unlikely of places. Some of the figures mentioned seemed slightly ridiculous. Why? Because I'm talking about a potential 11bn barrels of untapped oil!

“As soon as I’d analysed the story and confirmed the potential, I sent the details straight to readers of my exclusive penny share newsletter, Red Hot Penny Shares (you can find out more about that by clicking here).

“What I can tell you today is that this could be no less than the oil discovery of the decade. If you thought Gulf Keystone’s progress in 2009 was impressive, the potential here is even bigger…”

In case that name means nothing to you, Gulf Keystone (ticker: GKP) was one of the major small cap wonder stories from last year. From low to high, it rocketed 2,768% after it struck oil in Kurdistan, creating a frenzy of speculation… and fortunes for switched-on investors…

“And, what’s even more intriguing,” Tom continues about his new idea, “this potential ocean of oil is in a place where no one in the mainstream press is reporting. It’s somewhere you or I would never guess – not in the Falklands, neither Kurdistan nor Canada nor Russia.

“I’ve been working hard to compile a report on how you can invest in this opportunity. This report isn’t quite ready, so I don’t want to reveal any more just yet. But it won’t be much longer. For now, keep checking for updates in forthcoming editions of Penny Sleuth. Because when it is ready, you’re going to want to know about it.”

Tom’s report on this unmissable oil opportunity is almost complete. We’ll make sure Daily Reckoning readers receive all the details just as soon as it’s ready. Tom expects that this will be in the next two weeks. In the meantime, click on this link for a great example of how you could benefit from Tom’s investment expertise.

Your capital is at risk when you invest in shares, never risk more than you can afford to lose. Please seek independent financial advice if necessary. Fleet Street Publications Ltd. 0207 633 3600.

And more thoughts...

*** Poor Tim Geithner. He’s got to appear before Congress and explain how come the US bailed out AIG by paying off its counterparties at par. You’d think everyone involved should have taken a haircut on that deal. But the only ones to get scalped were those who had nothing to do with it – the taxpayers.

Why, Tim?

Of course, the Secretary of the Treasury will have answers. He’s been rehearsing them for weeks. He’ll explain that the integrity of the system was at stake... etc... etc... blah... blah.

The real reason was that the authorities have a different agenda. They have no idea how an economy really works. So, they merely react to the incentives laid before them.

On the one hand, the taxpayers may be annoyed... but the common man will never really understand what went on. On the other hand, Goldman Sachs pays its top operatives very well... and Tim Geithner is still a young man. He’s going to need another job after his term at the Treasury is up. And the way it’s going, his boss may only have three years left... not seven.

Goldman had a lot of money at stake in AIG. And why not bail it out? Wouldn’t that be good for the economy? Wouldn’t it help protect investors’ confidence? Wouldn’t everyone be better off as a result?

Of course they would, Tim. Of course they would...

*** The British economy finally pulled out of the worst recession in 50 years. At least, that’s what the government claims and the papers report. GDP growth was positive in the last quarter of 2009. By exactly 0.1%.

This was such a poor showing that the pound fell on the news. And given the way governments track GDP it is hardly proof of anything. A number that close to zero is meaningless. It could end up being revised in either direction.

The real story in Britain is the same as in the US... only worse. Britain’s economy boomed when London’s financial industry boomed.

If we’re right... the financial industry is now in a downturn that will last for decades. Not since the ‘40s has there been such a decline in consumer and business credit.

And when this de-leveraging cycle finally bottoms out it could be many years in the future. Then, the new centre of world finance will probably be in a different city – perhaps in Singapore.

Until tomorrow,

Bill Bonner
For The Daily Reckoning

P.S. If you enjoyed this article you can find out more about our free email, The Right Side by clicking here.

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Bill Bonner worries that America is repeating the economic errors of the thirties

A Cockamamie Economy