Why Is Gordon Brown Still Prime Minister?

Just why is Gordon Brown still in office? Why?

I remember all the "Vote Blair, Get Brown" talk from Labour supporters in the run up to the last election. Well, we’ve got him now. Had him for over a year. And it’s a long time since I heard anyone say "Tell you what — I’m a big Gordon Brown man, me."

Certainly the voters of Glasgow East don’t feel that way. Until yesterday, the constituency was one of Labour’s biggest strongholds. The party held a majority of 13,507. That was completely overturned in yesterday’s by-election, where the Scottish National Party took the seat.

Now, it’s tempting to go down the "if this result was repeated across the country..." road. It won’t be, of course. There will still be Labour MPs who feel safe in their seats. I grew up in a Labour constituency. Voting Labour is, for many, as natural as breathing.

Nevertheless, events in Glasgow will have even safe-sitting MPs looking over their shoulders. As for those in marginal, or even semi-marginal seats — well, they’ll be positively squirming.

So I ask again — why is Gordon Brown still the Prime Minister?

It’s tempting to say that it’s just a matter of time before he’s ousted. Labour backbenchers certainly have the incentive. Realistically I doubt any of them believe a change of leader will prevent Labour from losing the next election.

But MPs are playing for themselves now — for some, a new face at the top might be just enough to keep them in Parliament for another five years.

There is, however, a problem. Whom do MPs line up to replace Brown?

There are potential leaders-in-waiting — David Miliband and James Purnell spring to mind. But such men are young, and ambitious. They’d be better off biding their time in opposition than stepping up now.

Persuading them, or anyone else for that matter, to accept the poison chalice of replacing Brown could prove as impossible a task as winning an election under the current boss.

Labour is gripped by fear and inertia. It is this — and little else — that is keeping G Brown in the hot seat.

China — a country with too much money

Imagine having so much money it was actually annoying. Well, that "problem" is a reality for the Chinese government.

As the saying goes, a problem shared is a problem halved. Play your cards right, and the Chinese government might well share some of its little problem with you. "China’s mighty export machine has sucked in so much money that the country now has $1.81 thousand billion in foreign exchange reserves," says our emerging markets follower Manraaj Singh.

"All that extra cash in the country has fuelled inflation. And it’s added to the upwards pressure on the Chinese yuan."

One remedy to this problem is to invest the excess cash — and that’s exactly what China is doing. It’s undertaking a massive global investment programme. And today, Manraaj wants to show you how YOU could profit from it.

Cycles within cycles

"This is not the first time we have seen a correction in commodity prices in the past 12 months," says Garry White, Fleet Street’s expert on that sector. "It has happened before on more than one occasion... only for new highs to be reached in the following weeks and months."

Recent commodity price falls may have spooked some investors. But, as Garry points out, there are cycles within the commodities supercycle. And that supercycle still has a long way to go.

Garry’s not alone in this view. No less an investor than Jim Rogers, quoted in today’s Daily Reckoning (see below), had this to say:

"We have a secular bull market — but it’s not in stocks; it’s in commodities. There are long bull markets in stocks...and then long bull markets in commodities. And these can last a long time. The shortest bull market in commodities lasted 15 years...but it could last much longer. This one will probably be around until 2020."

Despite recent pullbacks, the case for commodities is strong. You need this type of exposure in your portfolio.

Find out why our man Garry reckons the correction is good news — for one investment in particular...

Until tomorrow

Ben Traynor

PS Our research director Theo Casey is very excited. Because this coming Monday he launches a brand new daily email service on behalf of The Fleet Street Letter. In such volatile times it’s vital to stay in touch with day-to-day company events. Now you can. You can find out more about The Fleet Street Letter right here

The Daily Reckoning — More from the Vancouver investment conference

We’re still here, listening to presentations by various financial analysts...trying to make sense out of things...and reporting to you directly from the floor of the Vancouver investing conference.

Up on stage, our old friend Paul van Eeden is explaining why the price of gold may be overpriced.

"Gold is money," says Paul, "and almost only money." So, you can forget supply and demand. To figure out what the price of gold should be, simply look at what it will buy, in comparison to other currencies. The only time gold leaves its "theoretical value" — as measured by what it will buy — is when speculation drives it up or down beyond what it is really worth.

You can read the Daily Reckoning in full HERE. P.S. If you enjoyed this article then we encourage you to sign up for the free Fleet Street Daily eletter. Learn what you can expect from today's markets -- and how to prosper in the face of uncertainty. You won't find more thought provoking writing anywhere on the Internet.

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Why Is Gordon Brown Still Prime Minister?

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Why Is Gordon Brown Still Prime Minister?