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Market Outlook

The Positive Side Of The Financial Crisis

Date 17/10/2008
The Right Side | By Ben Traynor
You could be about to make the best investment of your life.

I’m deadly serious. As Nathan Rothschild famously said: "The best time to buy is when blood is running in the streets."

I don’t think we’ve come that far... yet (I hope we don’t get there at all. But I intend to be prepared in case we do). There is more bad news ahead, which is why I’m maintaining a cautious stance.

But there is no one-size-fits-all investment policy. That’s why, cautious though we are, we’ll be making those "surgical strikes" I mentioned yesterday. In a moment I’ll tell you about just such an opportunity (and you’ll be surprised where it is).

First, if you’ll indulge me, I’d like to get something off my chest. I’m about to take a two week break, so this’ll be my only chance for a wee while...

Last night I went to Broadcasting House to watch the recording of a BBC radio comedy. As I was queuing to put my bag belt and keys through the x-ray machine (yes, the BBC has airport security) I caught a spot of news on the TV in the lobby.

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The gist was that stocks fell again because of fears about global recession. I can’t really explain what happened, but something inside me snapped. I turned to my friend and asked what I immediately realised was a highly stupid question.

"Why is this not priced in yet?"

After all, as I touched on yesterday, the idea of a global slowdown isn’t a week old. Markets are supposed to be forward looking. They’re supposed to have good information and that information is supposed to be reflected in the prices.

Or so we’re told.

But, of course, it isn’t true. It’s never been true, and never will be. Markets are not efficient — that’s why my question was so stupid.

Take the big one-day falls we’ve had recently. These were undoubtedly made worse by forced selling — investors offloading assets because they needed the cash to cover losses elsewhere. But what, I ask you, has the financial predicament of the forced sellers got to do with the future prospects of the world economy? Not much.

The market is forward looking — but sometimes it seems to only look a day or so ahead. It is not efficient.

It bugs me that so many people still pay homage to an efficiency that simply doesn’t manifest itself. And being made to take off my belt to watch comedy probably didn’t help...

It shouldn’t bug me, of course. In fact I should (and I usually do) celebrate the inefficiencies of the market. It’s those inefficiencies that present us with our opportunities.

I began today’s FSD by saying that you could be about to make the best investment of your life. Now, I can’t say what the investment will be. No one can.

It could be a defensive large cap offering a mouth-watering dividend yield at today’s beaten down prices. It could be a penny share in a tiny company that will defy the recession and see explosive growth.

But I’m confident of this: you will make investments in the next few months that will set you up for spectacular returns. And the future stars of your portfolio won’t necessarily be the ones you expect.

These are crazy times. The inefficient stock markets of the world will throw up more and more bargains as The Great Deleveraging goes on.

Until it’s over, there will be no one "right time" to get in. Surgical strikes are the name of the game...

"You have to go off the beaten track to find the best opportunities right now," says my colleague Manraaj Singh.

Manraaj tells me he’s found an energy play that, by rights, investors should be jumping all over. He calls it The Last Great Coal Reserve in the World.

But, as I say, the markets are not efficient. You see, this giant coal deposit is in Mozambique — not a place to be found on the lips of most investors. The opportunity is huge, but few people even know about it.

This is our opportunity — and you can play it with an investment you can make right here in London.

Manraaj tells me that the real value of coal lies in its attraction for steel producers. The big steel companies are already jostling to exploit the Mozambique resource. Vale of Brazil, Tata Steel of India, Nippon Steel of Japan.

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They’re all moving in — and bringing big money with them.

Manraaj isn’t too bothered which of the steel boys comes out on top, though. Whoever it is, they’ll have to transport the coal. And that should mean big profits for Manraaj’s infrastructure play.

"When the coal starts flowing," he says, "Pow! One company will be sitting on a unique profit opportunity!"

Read Manraaj’s latest report now by following this link, and discover how you could profit from the Mozambique Coal Boom.

Until next time

Ben Traynor
Editor
Fleet Street Daily

PS I will be holiday for the next two weeks. My colleagues will be taking the FSD reins while I’m gone, bringing you the latest from their various spheres of investment. See you in November!

Manraaj Singh on the Boomtown on the Edge of the World.

The Daily Reckoning — Let the Liquidations Begin!

Good news, bad news... and news we don’t know what the heck to make of...

The good news is that the Dow rose more than 400 points yesterday. Or, maybe that’s the bad news. This market needs a good hosing, in our opinion. Best to get it over with.

Who’s afraid of a financial meltdown? Everyone. Except us. On the other hand, we’ve never seen a financial meltdown... and maybe once we have a look, we won’t like it.

What would happen if the banks were allowed to fail? What would happen if the economy were allowed to sink into a recession quickly? What would happen if stocks were allowed to fall to 5 times earnings?

You can read the Daily Reckoning in full here.

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