OK, this is very much a "work-in-progress", but here’s a selection of some of the stocks we’ve been looking at lately. All three are UK based and UK listed. But each of them has an ‘international flavour’ — just what you need in your portfolio right now!
Earnings season is, for the most part, developing into a credit crunch autopsy. It will take a heavy flow of good news and high trading volumes to breathe some life into the FTSE 350. Sadly this hasn’t materialised yet. In retail it’s particularly gloomy.
In the earnings season just passed retailers were hit hardest. We’ve had 115 profit warnings from UK firms since January, the worst figure since 2001.
The high street alone produced 18 profit warnings. The culprit? The anaemic property market.
"Increased property values gave people the confidence to spend money, but property prices have burst," says Keith McGregor of Ernst & Young.
To be fair, January to March is never a great time for retailers. But it’s especially bad this year. According to the Guardian, in the 12 months to March, 42% of retailers have issued profit warnings.
It’s slim pickings, but a specialist retailer has shown that it’s not just giants like Tesco and Sainsbury’s that can beat the crunch.
Luxury retailer Burberry (LSE: BRBY) has shown the crisis a clean pair of heels, and paints a rosy picture for the rest of the year. The British megabrand posted a 25% leap in profits — and international markets are leading the way.
In fact, even Burberry’s board find this extreme outperformance difficult to comprehend!
"It has become difficult to extract trends. We are seeing volatility not so much in specific regions but within stores, some days sales are significantly up, and others significantly down," says finance director Stacey Cartwright.
A lot of the money is from, of all places, the US. The firm expects continued strength over the next six months, and anticipates growth in US earnings of more than 20%.
Burberry’s double-digit growth there is still in the ascendancy according to Cartwright. "We are very under-penetrated in this market," she says. "There is lots more to go for there."
Everywhere bar Spain is growing, not to mention a 20% growth in emerging markets for the wholesale division. With revenues closing in on £1 billion, why is Burberry winning while other retailers are losing?
Well, it’s not stuck in Britain for starters! Burberry markets to a global audience and is hence not limited by the whims of a single clump of consumers.
Weakness in the UK market (which, for the record, Burberry is also weathering) would not translate into profit warnings for the fashion label because it operates all across the world.
Burberry is not unique in this respect. In fact, for international diversification, the FTSE 350 is one of your best bets. The local supply of global firms is an asset that any private investor should take advantage of.
Window on the world
We investors tend to get bogged down with stock stories closer to home. But zoom out and you will see opportunities all-over-the-shop, not just in retail.
Savvy stock pickers need to think global. By most estimates, real growth in trade this year will come from emerging markets. China, Russia, India... Our stock market is a window on the world, and this is where we will be focusing its energies as developed nations look a little tired.
Here are two other firms whose earnings results show good international exposure:
AVEVA (LSE: AVV)
Computer design firm AVEVA doubled its full year profits to beat analysts’ forecasts. Profits were £45m for the year ended 31st March, up from £24.7m the year before. Sales rose 34% for the period to £127.6m.
The group, which designs IT systems to help build oil rigs, ships and energy plants, said demand from these industries remains strong and is set to grow.
"Looking ahead, the board believes the outlook for the current year remains very positive for the business. The Oil and Gas, Power and Marine industries remain buoyant, driven by high commodity prices and strong underlying end-user demand," said a spokesman.
Broker Cazenove reiterated its confidence in material upgrades for later in the year. "Today’s results demonstrate management’s ability to deliver profitable growth and demand levels that show no current signs of moderation," it said.
Electrocomponents (LSE: ECM)
Distributor Electrocomponents reported a jump in profits and strong international performance and internet presence driving sales growth. Profits for the year to 31st March rose 9% to £95.4m from £87.2m in 2007. China led the way, with revenues up 35%.
North American and Asia Pacific revenues grew at 10% and 15% respectively. The Chinese market was the star performer, with revenues up 35%. UK revenues by comparison crawled 1% higher.
"This has been a successful year for the business with double digit headline profit growth, strong cash flow delivery, completion of the EBS implementation in Europe and the £10m cost reduction target being met," said Ian Mason, group chief executive officer.
In the first eight weeks of the new financial year sales are up by about 2% year-on-year. This, however, masks a 2% decline in UK revenues; the international business has grown revenue by around 5%.
Just because the UK economy is struggling, doesn’t mean all UK businesses are. For superior returns, you want to identify companies with established profit streams deriving from growing, foreign markets.
Theo Casey
